Where and when: MCG, Friday, September 18, 7.45pm
Head to head: St Kilda 73 wins, Western Bulldogs 70 wins, three draws
Last time: St Kilda 16.10 (106) d Western Bulldogs 9.7 (61), round 17, 2009 at Etihad Stadium
MISSING IN ACTION
St Kilda
Michael Gardiner (hamstring) - assess
Matt Maguire (hamstring) - assess
Paul Cahill (ankle) - indefinite
Xavier Clarke (knee) - indefinite
Western Bulldogs
Sam Reid (groin) – test
Stephen Tiller (groin) - test
FORM
St Kilda: WLLWW
Western Bulldogs: WWWLW
SUMMARY
The Saints earned themselves a vital extra week of recovery with a 28-point win over Collingwood. It was a welcome return to form after exhibiting some patchy play late in the home and away season when 19 straight wins were followed by shock losses to Essendon and North Melbourne.
The Dogs were almost the opposite; finishing the regular season strongly with three wins against finals-bound opponents the Brisbane Lions, Geelong and Collingwood before losing to the Cats in the first week of the finals. That loss saw them pitted against the Lions once more, this time in a semi-final, but again they had too much class for the developing Lions and recorded a comprehensive 51-point victory.
Both teams are in pretty good nick for this time of the year, but Michael Gardiner's hamstring will still need to be assessed before he can play. Sam Reid and Stephen Tiller are the only Dogs carrying injuries, but they are unlikely to be called upon anyway. Ryan Griffen and Will Minson picked up minor knocks in last week's game, but both have been declared fit.
PLAYER TO WATCH
Nick Riewoldt (St Kilda)
The Saints rely on their skipper more than just about any other team/player combination you'd care to name. He is just so important to the team's fortunes, as evidenced by his Herculean efforts in the qualifying final, that you'd be almost guaranteed an afternoon of high entertainment by watching his duel with his opponent exclusively.
Brian Lake (Western Bulldogs)
The All-Australian defender's game will be pivotal to the Dogs' chances. He'll play on the Saints' tall timber nearest goal and will continue to back himself to out-mark his opponent. He had a few nervous moments matched up on Jonathan Brown in the semi-final and he'll need to maintain his composure for four quarters if the Dogs are to prevail.
QUESTION MARKS
Can the Saints hold their nerve? At this point a lot depends on how they handle the pressure of their fourth preliminary final in six years. They haven't taken the next step since 1997 which might cause a few nerves among the group.
Will Tom Williams play? The key defender is highly-rated by the Dogs' hierarchy and got a game under his belt in the VFL last weekend after being sidelined by a foot injury since round 20.
Can the Bulldogs get their mid-sized forward line working under finals intensity? Rodney Eade would be delighted to end the tall forward debate once and for all.
WHO WILL WIN AND WHY?
This promises to be a preliminary final match-up to remember. St Kilda has the wood on the Dogs with two wins this season, but the round 17 clash was closely-contested until a final term goal from an interchange bungle cost the Dogs dearly.
The Saints' frenzied attack on the ball carrier waned a little late in the season, but showed signs of returning against the Pies. The Bullies have the weapons and will do their very best to keep the ball moving and break the lines. But with an extra week to prepare and rest tired bodies the best team over 22 rounds should have enough left in reserve to advance.
The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.
