A big win to North Melbourne has shaken up the race for the top four, and Collingwood is the side to drop out. With one round to play, Geelong, Richmond and the Roos are all pushing for the double chance, while one final win will solidify the Western Bulldogs' place in finals.
1. Brisbane
32 points (eight wins, one loss), 267.8 per cent
As Brisbane coach Craig Starcevich told his team in the preparation for last week's game, percentage is everything at this point as the Lions push for a home finals series and a big 54-point win over the Hawks has put them in the best position to finish in top spot. A final meeting with Collingwood looms, against whom the Lions are on a four-game winning streak and at their home away from home of Metricon Stadium, Brisbane is all but certain to spend November playing in Queensland.
The run home
RD10: Collingwood at Metricon Stadium
2. Melbourne
32 points (eight wins, one loss), 240.4 per cent
The Demons are guaranteed the double chance but need to post a big win if they are to overtake Brisbane for the minor premiership, and against a West Coast outfit that is conceding more than 40 points per game there is a genuine chance Melbourne can make it happen. For Mick Stinear's charges it will be all about limiting any - or all - of the Eagles' scoring, while piling on plenty of their own, something Melbourne has done expertly in recent weeks.
The run home
RD10: West Coast at Casey Fields
3. Adelaide
28 points (seven wins, two losses), 174.9 per cent
A narrow win over Geelong on Friday saw Adelaide's percentage drop by nearly 10, so the reigning premiers are both a game and more than 65 per cent out of the top two. While the Crows would prefer a home finals series, they are all but sure to finish inside the top four with the double chance. Finishing the season against St Kilda bodes well for their aim to close the percentage gap, and badly for a Saints side that will want to finish the season with some pride. Should the Crows lose, however, they may drop out of the top four as the likes of Richmond, North Melbourne, and Geelong all surge home.
The run home
RD10: St Kilda at RSEA Park
4. Richmond
28 points (seven wins, two losses), 154.7 per cent
The Tigers are locked in for their first ever finals series and are on the cusp of an unlikely top-four finish. Their match against North Melbourne on Sunday looms as the top-four shaper, with the winner likely to snatch fourth spot, and the loser to progress to an elimination final. For Richmond to take it, however, it would have to post its first ever win over the Roos.
The run home
RD10: North Melbourne at Arden Street
5. Collingwood
28 points (seven wins, two losses), 147.6 per cent
A big loss to North Melbourne last weekend was just the first hurdle Collingwood had to face in the final fortnight. The Pies must now take on ladder-leader Brisbane and given their percentage of 147.6 not even an unlikely win guarantees them the double chance. Collingwood has not beaten the Lions since round six of 2020, and since then has been knocked out of finals twice by the Queenslanders.
The run home
RD10: Brisbane at Metricon Stadium
6. North Melbourne
24 points (six wins, three losses), 175.7 per cent
A dominant 32-point win over Collingwood last week was just what the Kangaroos needed to get their run into finals going, and now with a superior percentage to others contending for fourth spot, they are well placed to get the double chance should they beat Richmond on Sunday. A loss, however, not only results in an elimination final for the Roos, but likely an away final to start November.
The run home
RD10: Richmond at Arden Street
7. Geelong
24 points (six wins, three losses), 144.6 per cent
By virtue of a poorer season six than many of the other contenders, Geelong comes home against expansion side Sydney, leaving the Cats' fate in their own hands. Should they post a big win and both Richmond and Collingwood lose, the Cats may still finish in fourth spot, but they would need to overcome North Melbourne's percentage in the process.
The run home
RD10: Sydney at GMHBA Stadium
8. Western Bulldogs
24 points (six wins, three losses), 109.8 per cent
For the Bulldogs, it is as simple as win and they are in. Due to a low percentage, it is unlikely they finish any higher than eighth so even a one-point victory over Carlton on Friday will do the job and dash Gold Coast's hopes.
The run home
RD10: Carlton at Ikon Park
9. Gold Coast
20 points (five wins, four losses), 90.2 per cent
The Suns will be rooting for Carlton on Friday night, because a loss for the Bulldogs is the only way their hopes remain alive come Sunday. Should the Dogs lose, Gold Coast simply needs to make up the percentage game - currently at 19.6 per cent - against GWS to snatch eighth place.
The run home
RD10: GWS at Henson Park
