Upsets galore in round 17 has seen Melbourne return to the top of the ladder, the reigning champs sink even further and the race for the final two spots in the eight open up significantly.
The Demons found their mojo in a big win over Port Adelaide on Thursday night that sees Simon Goodwin's take a stranglehold on an all-important double chance.
The Western Bulldogs' surprise loss to Sydney saw last week's ladder-leaders drop to second place, while Brisbane is clinging to fourth after its shock defeat to St Kilda.
The action is really heating up at the bottom of the top eight with Richmond slumping to 12th after its fourth loss in a row.
West Coast's third straight loss has it clinging onto eighth spot behind crosstown rivals Fremantle in seventh, but St Kilda, GWS, Essendon and the Tigers are all in the hunt for what promises to be a thrilling finish to the season.
1. Melbourne
52 points (13 wins, three losses), 129.9 per cent
Thursday night's win over Port Adelaide gives Simon Goodwin's side a crucial two-game buffer – plus more than 10 per cent – inside the top-four with six matches remaining. Only a debacle from here would see the Demons miss a double chance. The next fortnight should prove percentage boosters which will then be followed by a tough two-week stretch against the Western Bulldogs and West Coast on the road. Provided they beat Adelaide at the MCG, the Demons could be fighting for a top-two slot when they travel to Geelong to finish the home and away season. – Mitch Cleary
The run home
R18: Hawthorn @ MCG
R19: Gold Coast @ TIO Stadium
R20: Western Bulldogs @ MCG
R21: West Coast @ Optus Stadium
R22: Adelaide @ MCG
R23: Geelong @ GMHBA Stadium
2. Western Bulldogs
48 points (12 wins, four losses), 142.4 per cent
The Dogs' disappointing loss to the Swans on Sunday has cost them top spot for now, but they get the chance to keep the pressure on the Dees over the next fortnight with winnable matches against the Suns and the Crows. Their round 20 showdown against the Demons may yet decide who claims the minor premiership, although things are starting to tighten up near the top with just two wins separating second and sixth. The Dogs host fellow premiership contender Port Adelaide in the final round and this clash could help shape the makeup of the top four. - Jonathan Healy
The run home
R18: Gold Coast @ Metricon Stadium
R19: Adelaide @ Mars Stadium
R20: Melbourne @ MCG
R21: Essendon @ Marvel Stadium
R22: Hawthorn @ UTAS Stadium
R23: Port Adelaide @ Marvel Stadium
3. Geelong
48 points (12 wins, four losses), 124.9 percent
Geelong's grip on a top-four spot has been bolstered by Port Adelaide's loss on Thursday night, its victory over Carlton on Saturday evening and a rather routine run home. There's a short break before next week's trip to Optus Stadium to face Fremantle, but Geelong enjoys three straight games on its home turf at GMHBA Stadium to finish the year. Should they survive the next three weeks unscathed, that means you can almost pencil the Cats down to earn themselves a double-chance. - Riley Beveridge
The run home
R18: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium
R19: Richmond @ MCG
R20: North Melbourne @ Blundstone Arena
R21: GWS Giants @ GMHBA Stadium
R22: St Kilda @ GMHBA Stadium
R23: Melbourne @ GMHBA Stadium
4. Brisbane
44 points (11 wins, five losses), 129 per cent
Although the Lions still have a relatively friendly run home, losing to the Saints puts a question mark over their spot in the top four. Playing Richmond at the MCG in Jack Riewoldt's 300th game on Friday night now looms as a huge match to right the ship and tighten a grip on the double chance. Perhaps above all else, Brisbane has six matches to figure out a new forward structure without injured Eric Hipwood. - Michael Whiting
The run home
R18: Richmond @ MCG
R19: Hawthorn @ MCG
R20: Gold Coast @ Gabba
R21: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium
R22: Collingwood @ Gabba
R23: West Coast @ Gabba
5. Port Adelaide
44 points (11 wins, five losses), 119.8 per cent
The loss to Melbourne leaves the Power with a winless record against the current top four, while they shaved off more than five per cent which could prove costly in six weeks' time. The only positive of the weekend was seeing Brisbane lose to St Kilda which leaves them even on points with the fourth-placed Lions. The Power themselves face the Saints next week in the midst of a barnstorming run with a loss just about enough to kiss goodbye to any top-two chances for Ken Hinkley's side. They should enter favourites in each of the next four matches thereafter, however a final round date with the Western Bulldogs could determine their double-chance hopes. – Mitch Cleary
The run home
R18: St Kilda @ Marvel Stadium
R19: Collingwood @ Adelaide Oval
R20: GWS Giants @ TBC
R21: Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval
R22: Carlton @ Adelaide Oval
R23: Western Bulldogs @ Marvel Stadium
6. Sydney
40 points (10 wins, six losses), 115.4 per cent
The Swans' upset victory over the Bulldogs on Sunday has edged them closer to cementing a spot in the top eight and they can now set their sights on sneaking into the top four. They take on the Giants this week in a crucial derby clash that will have major ramifications on the makeup of the top eight and a victory there could have the Swans inside the top four by the end of the round. A loss will have them looking over their shoulder, with remaining matches against Fremantle, Essendon and St Kilda sides also chasing a spot inside the top eight. - Jonathan Healy
The run home
R18: GWS Giants @ Mars Stadium
R19: Fremantle @ TBC
R20: Essendon @ Marvel Stadium
R21: St Kilda @ Marvel Stadium
R22: North Melbourne @ Marvel Stadium
R23: Gold Coast @ TBC
7. Fremantle
32 points (eight wins, eight losses), 97.3 per cent
The seas parted for the Dockers in round 17 and they moved from 10th to eighth at the end of the round thanks to Greater Western Sydney and Richmond's unexpected losses. The form of their midfield – particularly ruckman Sean Darcy – makes them a dangerous opponent, and they will need to be at their best during a difficult run home. Four of Freo's last six games are scheduled at Optus Stadium after the venue swap with Brisbane earlier this season, and clashes against Richmond and St Kilda also mean they can see off challengers themselves. The return of key defender Alex Pearce has been crucial, and Rory Lobb is standing up as the main forward target. The round 22 Western Derby will be a blockbuster if both teams remain alive. – Nathan Schmook
The run home
R18: Geelong @ Optus Stadium
R19: Sydney @ TBC
R20: Richmond @ Optus Stadium
R21: Brisbane @ Optus Stadium
R22: West Coast @ Optus Stadium
R23: St Kilda @ Marvel Stadium
8. West Coast
32 points (eight wins, eight losses), 94.8 per cent
The shock loss at home to last-placed North Melbourne has put the Eagles' finals hopes in serious jeopardy. Their inconsistent form, and the improvement of others around them, now makes the run home decidedly more difficult than it appeared a few weeks ago, with a hungry St Kilda and unrestrained Collingwood both shaping as tricky opponents before a challenging final three weeks. Catching sixth-placed Sydney and earning a home elimination final appears a bridge too far with matches against top-four sides Melbourne and Brisbane looming as likely losses. The round 22 Derby against an in-form Fremantle is shaping as massive 'eight-pointer'.
The run home
R18: Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval
R19: St Kilda @ Optus Stadium
R20: Collingwood @ MCG
R21: Melbourne @ Optus Stadium
R22: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium
R23: Brisbane @ Gabba
9. St Kilda
32 points (eight wins, eight losses), 86.9 per cent
Three straight wins has breathed life into St Kilda's season and given Brett Ratten's men a chance to play in September, however, its final six weeks is about as tough as it gets. The next fortnight is huge, hosting Port Adelaide and then travelling to play the Eagles in Perth. There's no point looking too far ahead for the Saints, but if they continue the form they showed against Brisbane, anything is possible. - Michael Whiting
The run home
R18: Port Adelaide @ Marvel Stadium
R19: West Coast @ Optus Stadium
R20: Carlton @ Marvel Stadium
R21: Sydney @ TBC
R22: Geelong @ GMHBA Stadium
R23: Fremantle @ Marvel Stadium
10. Greater Western Sydney
30 points (seven wins, eight losses, one draw), 97.2 per cent
The demoralising one-point loss to Gold Coast means the Giants have failed to beat three bottom-six teams in the past month and now have little room for further slip-ups. They can probably only afford to drop one more game, so will need a near-perfect record through three tough matches against top-four contenders and two against other finals aspirants. Even though they’re now getting close to a full-strength team, that seems unlikely. A final-round clash with Carlton can hardly be considered a certainty for the Giants too, given their recent record against lower-ranked teams. - Martin Pegan
The run home
R18: Sydney @ Mars Stadium
R19: Essendon @ Marvel Stadium
R20: Port Adelaide @ TBC
R21: Geelong @ GMHBA Stadium
R22: Richmond @ TBC
R23: Carlton @ Marvel Stadium
11. Essendon
28 points (seven wins, nine losses), 103.4 per cent
The Bombers are in the mix for the finals and will benefit from a run of their next four games being played at Marvel Stadium, where they have won four of their five games this season, including Friday night’s smashing of Adelaide. They should beat the Kangaroos this week and would be favourites to beat the Giants, Gold Coast and Collingwood in their final six weeks of the season. The Bulldogs have a field day most times they face the Bombers so a crunch game looms against the Swans at Marvel. - CallumTwomey
The run home
R18: North Melbourne @ Marvel Stadium
R19: GWS Giants @ Marvel Stadium
R20: Sydney @ Marvel Stadium
R21: Western Bulldogs @ Marvel Stadium
R22: Gold Coast @ Metricon Stadium
R23: Collingwood @ MCG
12. Richmond
28 points (seven wins, nine losses), 99.3 per cent
Oh boy. Richmond now sits six points out of the top eight after limping to a 16-point loss to Collingwood, despite taking a 20-point lead into the final term. The back-to-back premiers are now facing a tough three weeks, taking on a smarting Brisbane, top-four aspirant Geelong and Fremantle on its home deck. Pinching two wins will be vital. – Sarah Black
The run home
R18: Brisbane @ MCG
R19: Geelong @ MCG
R20: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium
R21: North Melbourne @ MCG
R22: GWS Giants @ TBC
R23: Hawthorn @ MCG
