Head to head: Geelong 90 wins, Western Bulldogs 55 wins, one draw
Last time: Western Bulldogs 16.14 (110) d Geelong 14.12 (96), round 21, 2009, at Etihad Stadium
MISSING IN ACTION
Geelong
Tom Gillies (hamstring) – test
David Johnson (thigh) – test
Max Rooke (thigh) – test
David Wojcinski (ankle) – test
Bryn Weadon (quad) – test
Travis Varcoe (shoulder) – test
Paul Chapman (hamstring) – test
Steve Johnson (hip) – 1 week
Scott Simpson (ankle) – 1-2 weeks
Josh Hunt (knee) – season
Mitch Brown (leg) – season
Ranga Ediriwickrama (hamstring) – season
Matthew Egan (foot) – season
Western Bulldogs
Tom Williams (foot) – 1 week
FORM
Geelong: WLWLW
Western Bulldogs: WLWWW
SUMMARY
Geelong enters the finals with quite a few question marks against its name. There's an injury list that has more key players on it than Mark Thompson would be comfortable with, there's the fact a couple of Cats could be slightly underdone should they be named at all, and there's the problem of facing a side that beat them as recently as two weeks ago.
The Cats have not won consecutive games since rounds 16 to 18, when they knocked off Melbourne, Hawthorn and Adelaide at the end of a two-match losing streak. Since then, their form has wavered. A loss to Carlton in round 19 caught many by surprise, which was forgotten a week later when they travelled to Sydney and outlasted the Swans for a grinding five-point win. On return to Melbourne, they lost to the Bulldogs by 14 points before beating Fremantle by 40 at Skilled Stadium in what was a casual warm-up match for the finals.
The Cats have not won consecutive games since rounds 16 to 18, when they knocked off Melbourne, Hawthorn and Adelaide at the end of a two-match losing streak. Since then, their form has wavered. A loss to Carlton in round 19 caught many by surprise, which was forgotten a week later when they travelled to Sydney and outlasted the Swans for a grinding five-point win. On return to Melbourne, they lost to the Bulldogs by 14 points before beating Fremantle by 40 at Skilled Stadium in what was a casual warm-up match for the finals.
Meanwhile, the Bulldogs' past three weeks have been nothing short of exemplary. After a wobbly win over Fremantle in round 18, the Dogs were beaten in one of the upsets of the season when West Coast got them at Etihad Stadium. Shocked by the result, the Dogs packed their bags and headed to the sunshine state four days before their clash with the Brisbane Lions, in a bid to reinvigorate their passion.
Whatever they did up there certainly worked. They went on to beat the Lions – without Ryan Griffen, Daniel Cross, Daniel Giansiracusa and Shaun Higgins. They then carried their form into matches with Geelong and Collingwood, with wins over both not only announcing themselves to the competition as a side to be reckoned with, but allowing them to pinch third spot from the Magpies at the end of round 22.
PLAYER TO WATCH
Brad Ottens (Geelong)
Since last weekend's clash with Fremantle wasn't exactly highlights reel material, only those in attendance would have witnessed Ottens' first senior game since round two. That was probably just what the Cats were angling for on the eve of their finals campaign. This week however, there will be nowhere to hide as he takes on Ben Hudson and Will Minson.
Ben Hudson (Western Bulldogs)
The former Crow was scheduled to play his 100th AFL game last weekend, but when the club's cheer squad unveiled a commemorative banner, there was no big ruckman to run through it. He'll play this week after overcoming the hamstring that forced his late withdrawal, but will the cheer squad forgive him enough to replicate the round 22 crepe paper tribute?
QUESTION MARKS
Will the Bulldogs be able to replicate the type of tackling pressure they beat the Cats with only two weeks ago?
How effective will Ottens be in the 60 per cent of game time Thompson is expecting to give him?
How much will last year's preliminary final loss to the Cats, combined with a determination to earn a week off after a disastrous qualifying outing against Hawthorn, inspire the Dogs to victory?
Will the Cats' five games at the MCG (for four wins) compared to the Dogs' three (for three wins) have any bearing on the result?
WHO WILL WIN AND WHY
Both sides will make changes, with the Cats to test a variety of players and the Dogs to bring in Hudson and Griffen.
And, while both sides have spun the wheel many times at selection committee over the past few weeks, it seems the Dogs have more stability entering this match.
Their players are fit, the ones who recently came back – bar Griffen – have games under their belts, and they've got incredible momentum after disposing of three good sides.
Arguments can be made for the Cats after they recaptured form last weekend, but that was against players that were looking ahead to their end of season trip.
This is the third chance for the Dogs to capitalise on their "premiership window" – and they've learned enough over the past four years to know that opportunity won't last forever.
PREDICTION
Western Bulldogs by five points
The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.
