WEST Coast's upset over Adelaide on Friday night has thrown the 2016 AFL finals series into a state of flux.
The Crows hold a tenuous grip on second spot, with only percentage keeping them ahead of Geelong and Hawthorn. If those teams win, and Greater Western Sydney defeats North Melbourne on Saturday night, Adelaide would host North Melbourne in an elimination final.
However, if the Cats, Hawks or Giants slip up, Adelaide will maintain its spot in the top four.
Worst case scenario
Sydney Swans - Fifth
Adelaide - Fifth
Geelong - Sixth
West Coast - Sixth
Hawthorn - Seventh
Greater Western Sydney - Seventh
Western Bulldogs - Seventh
North Melbourne - Eighth
GWS sits in fifth, but a win over North Melbourne on Saturday night will mean the Giants are looking at a Sydney derby against the Sydney Swans at ANZ Stadium in a clash between first and fourth, assuming the Swans beat Richmond, the Cats defeat Melbourne and the Hawks prevail against Collingwood.
Lose, and GWS face a trip to Melbourne to face the Bulldogs. That is assuming the Dogs can overcome Fremantle in Perth.
If the Dockers can send their club great Matthew Pavlich out with a win, the Bulldogs would finish seventh, sending them to Spotless Stadium for an elimination final against GWS.
The Swans can wrap up the minor premiership by defeating Richmond at the SCG. A loss could see them fall to fourth, if the Cats, Hawks and Giants win their respective matches. That would see the Swans travel south in a likely clash with Geelong, or possibly Hawthorn, depending on how the percentages end up.
Hawthorn's bid to claim a top-four spot rests on victory against Collingwood. Winning could send them as high as first (if the Swans lose) or as low as third, assuming the Swans and Cats win. That scenario would see Geelong and Hawthorn renew their rivalry in a blockbuster qualifying final.
However, if Hawthorn loses and all the favourites win the Hawks could drop to sixth or even seventh.
The Cats need a win to assure themselves of a spot in the top four. Losing could see them tumble to fifth, setting up a Chris Scott v Brad Scott elimination final. The twin brothers have met in finals once before, with Brad Scott's North Melbourne overcoming Geelong in 2014.
North is locked into eighth spot.
West Coast is barely hanging on to fourth, and needs Hawthorn and GWS to lose. The worst-case scenario for the Eagles sees them hosting the Western Bulldogs in a do-or-die final.
Making the top four is essentially out of reach for the Bulldogs, with the percentage gap almost certainly proving insurmountable. However, they could leap above Hawthorn into fifth spot (the Hawks have a percentage advantage of 2.3) if the Dogs beat Fremantle, and the Hawks lose to Collingwood.
If the Dogs win by enough to overtake the Hawks, but the Giants also win, Luke Beveridge's team would finish sixth to take on his former mentor Alastair Clarkson in an elimination final.
