PICTURE this: it's the dying minutes of a cutthroat final and the Sydney Swans are searching for a match-winning goal.
Who would be their most dangerous target to isolate inside 50?
The obvious candidate is superstar forward Lance Franklin, but Kurt Tippett could in fact be the ace up coach John Longmire's sleeve.
Across the competition, the 202cm ruck-forward has a stunning success rate in one-on-one situations this season.
Tippett, who made a timely return from injury last round, boasts a remarkable 50 per cent winning ratio when he's targeted by a teammate's kick – a whopping 20 per cent above the AFL average.
That's better than even Geelong powerhouse Tom Hawkins (46 per cent), Adelaide star Josh Jenkins (42) as well as Buddy (27), among players who have been involved in a minimum of 30 one-on-one contests.
Champion Data's tracking credits a player with a one-on-one win only after a kick that gives both the target player and the defender a reasonable chance to win the contest.
Each player can win, lose or neutralise possession (force a stoppage, or a third player gets involved).
Before his hamstring injury, Tippett was relishing spending a bigger slice of game time in the ruck and becoming a dominant force around the ground.
"He is providing a real contest for our midfielders, which means they have great confidence in him and he has taken a lot of contested marks," Longmire said in May.
By hauling in three contested grabs – an equal game-high – upon his return against North Melbourne on Saturday, Tippett sent a reminder just how valuable he will be to the Swans in September.
But what about when the one-on-one scenario is flipped? Which players can be trusted not to lose contests when an opposition kick comes their way?
Perhaps surprisingly, Richmond jet Alex Rance doesn't top the list.
The Tigers champ is still very hard to beat and only loses a quarter of one-on-one contests – admittedly against the AFL's absolute elite forwards most of the time.
Instead, it's a lower-profile backman, Dale Morris, who has been beaten the least in 2016.
The 33-year-old has only lost seven of his 47 one-on-one contests (14.9 per cent) this season – a better strike rate than star Cats defender Harry Taylor (15.1) and Eagles marking machine Jeremy McGovern (15.6).
It could be telling that premiership fancy Geelong boasts dominant bookends in Hawkins and Taylor, and there's another big-name Cat who deserves a mention.
That, of course, is contested beast Patrick Dangerfield.
The superstar midfielder belongs near the very top of the pile with a 53.6 per cent winning ratio from 28 one-on-one contests (two shy of the cut-off criteria used above), roughly on par with Brownlow Medal rival Dustin Martin (60 per cent from 15 contests).
