Head to head: St Kilda 72 wins, Western Bulldogs 70 wins, three draws
Last time: St Kilda 14.20 (104) d Western Bulldogs 11.10 (76), round six, 2009, at Docklands
MISSING IN ACTION
St Kilda
Jarryd Allen (torn hip muscle) – indefinite
Xavier Clarke (ACL) – indefinite
Michael Gardiner (corked right calf) – to be assessed
Max Hudghton (right ankle sprain) – to be assessed
Justin Koschitzke (suspension) – 1 week
Zac Dawson (suspension) – 2 weeks
Western Bulldogs:
Ayce Cordy (back) – test
Sam Reid (groin) – test
James Mulligan (knee) – 1 week
Paul O'Shea (glandular fever) – 1 week
Stephen Tiller (groin) – 1 week
Daniel Giansiracusa (knee) – 4 weeks
FORM
St Kilda: WWWWW
Western Bulldogs: WLWWW
SUMMARY
There aren't many reasons to fault ladder-leaders St Kilda. The Saints have won every single game they've played this season, and most recently, beat top-four aspirant Adelaide by 57 points at Docklands last weekend. Their only really close shaves this year were against Carlton (round 12 – they won by nine points), and Geelong (round 14 – they won by six).
Their pressure has been the main reason St Kilda has been so far away from the rest of the pack. The Saints lead the League for tackles and marks, and are ranked second behind Geelong for disposals. They have two players ranked in the top 10 goalkickers - Nick Riewoldt (50 goals) and Justin Koschitzke (36) – and possess three of the competition's most prolific ball-getters in Leigh Montagna, Nick Dal Santo and Brendon Goddard.
Meanwhile, two unlucky results mean the Dogs don't have quite the same unblemished recent record. A two-point loss to Geelong in round nine and a one-point defeat by Collingwood in round 15 are the only blights on the Dogs' record for the past 10 rounds. Last weekend, they beat Essendon by 33 points after putting on a second-half blitz against the equally as pacy Bombers.
The reason the Bulldogs have been hard to stop this year is their myriad goalkickers. They have six players with over 20 goals for the year, meaning they are often tough to stop once the ball gets fed into the forward 50. Jason Akermanis (27 goals), Mitch Hahn (26), Shaun Higgins (25), Josh Hill (24), Brad Johnson (24) and Daniel Giansiracusa (20) lead the side for six-pointers, midfielders Matthew Boyd and Daniel Cross are having a strong say in the side's engine, and Adam Cooney and Robert Murphy are both improving after injury battles.
PLAYER TO WATCH
Farren Ray (St Kilda)
In his first game against his former side in round six, Ray picked up a career-best 31 touches playing off half-back. Last week, he bettered that with 39 against the Crows off the wing. He enters Saturday night's game with not only a good record against the Dogs, but with strong form in general after Sunday's commanding performance.
Ryan Hargrave (Western Bulldogs)
The Dogs' backman had 24 touches against the Saints last time in what was his sixth game in his new roaming role across half-back. With Koschitzke to miss with suspension, Dale Morris likely to resume his usual battle with Riewoldt and Jarrod Harbrow suited to Stephen Milne, Hargrave could be given more room than usual to demonstrate his creativity.
QUESTION MARKS
Will Ross Lyon's theory that the Saints will enter the game disadvantaged owing to a shorter break this week prove to be correct?
How much will losing a key forward and a key back in the same week upset the Saints' structure?
The Dogs have a point to prove having narrowly lost to the other sides in the top four. How much will this motivate them to secure a big scalp?
How much did the Dogs learn from the last time they played the Saints, and will they rectify the areas that let them down so dearly?
WHO WILL WIN AND WHY
Yes, history says the Saints are probably due for a loss. And yes, many people tipped Adelaide to hand it to them last weekend. However, not many people expected Ross Lyon's men to respond to those considerations in such commanding fashion. The Saints have answered every challenge handed to them this year, and were simply awesome on Sunday against a side that has previously been as defensively minded as them.
The Dogs have fallen short against the big boys this year, albeit by tiny margins. Last time the sides met, they hurt themselves with poor skill execution. They'll be better this time around, will be in with a chance if they can cut through the Saints' defensive set-up, but will most likely fall narrowly short.
The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.
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Watch three classic St Kilda/Western Bulldogs clashes and vote for your favourite here, and hit afl.com.au/rivalryround to check out the prizes and special offers available to all footy fans this Rivalry Round.
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