Where and when: MCG, Friday, September 11, 7.45pm AEST
Head to head: Western Bulldogs 23 wins, Brisbane Lions 16 wins, no draws
Last time: Brisbane Lions 12.12 (84) def by Western Bulldogs 15.12 (102), round 20, 2009 at the Gabba

MISSING IN ACTION
Western Bulldogs
Sam Reid (groin) – test

Brisbane Lions
Joel Macdonald (back) – test
Josh Drummond (quad) – test
Jed Adcock (knee) – indefinite
Joel Tippett (back) – season
Albert Proud (foot) – season
Bart McCulloch (quad) – season
Jamie Charman (ankle) – season
Pat Garner (knee) – season

FORM
Western Bulldogs: LWWWL
Brisbane Lions: DLWWW

SUMMARY
The spectre of a straight sets exit raised its head after the Bulldogs were defeated by 14 points by Geelong in the second qualifying final at the MCG last Saturday. The Dogs were thoroughly deserving of their second chance, however, after a strong finish to the season that included wins over the Lions, Collingwood and the Cats.

The Lions live to fight another day after a stirring come-from-behind victory over Carlton at the Gabba; eroding a late five-goal deficit to pip the Blues by seven points.

They also carried decent form into September after defeating the Power and the fired-up Swans in the final round.

The Bulldogs continue a good run in the medical room with only youngster Sam Reid, who lost his place to Ryan Griffen last week, listed for a test on his groin.

The Lions aren't even contemplating Jonathan Brown's absence, despite their skipper being forced from the ground with a facial injury in the win over Carlton.

Simon Black and Daniel Bradshaw passed late fitness tests to play last week and will be eased through the preparation for this match. Josh Drummond (quad) and Joel MacDonald (back) did not come up for the elimination final, but will push their claims here.

PLAYER TO WATCH
Daniel Giansiracusa (Western Bulldogs)
Gia hasn't scored a goal in three weeks and followed a 10-disposal effort in round 22 with a 14-touch performance in last week's final. He has admitted his disappointment at his tail-off in form and his ability to snap out of it will be crucial.

Jonathan Brown (Brisbane Lions)
Brown was voted the best captain in the AFL by his peers at the recent AFL Players' Association awards night, highlighting how important his leadership and inspirational play is to his team. If he has a big game the Lions are every chance of causing an upset.

QUESTION MARKS
Can the Dogs kill the tall forward debate? When they fail in a final Rodney Eade is inevitably asked if a key target is their weakness. His mid-sized forward line works just fine during the season, but the pressure is on to show it can stand up deep into September.

Can the Lions keep defying the odds? Not a great deal was expected of the side in Michael Voss' first year, but it has found ways to win time and again despite a heavy injury toll.

WHO WILL WIN AND WHY
After being considered the next-best side after the runaway top two all year it's suddenly crunch time for the Bulldogs. The idea of a straight sets exit is entirely unpalatable after the year they've had and a lot will depend on how they cope with that extra stress. A few key players will need to lift if they are to progress because the Lions are capable of exploiting any weaknesses that might present.

The Dogs will be buoyed by their round 20 win over the Lions and have plenty of scope for improvement. It's hard to see them putting in two sub-par performances in succession and it should be a much more polished unit that books a preliminary final berth on Friday night.

PREDICTION
Western Bulldogs by 16 points

The views in this article are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.