Carlton vs Western Bulldogs
Saturday 10 August 2013, 4:40pm
Venue: Etihad Stadium

Head to head:

Round 17, 2012: Western Bulldogs 12. 12 (84) defeated by Carlton 16. 6 (102), Etihad Stadium
Round 16, 2011: Western Bulldogs 14. 12 (96) defeated Carlton 9.15 (69), Etihad Stadium
Round 15, 2010: Carlton 8. 10 (58) defeated by Western Bulldogs 20. 6 (126), Etihad Stadium
Round 5, 2009: Western Bulldogs 13. 12 (90) defeated by Carlton 21. 7 (133), Etihad Stadium

Last time they met:

  • Despite a fast start and leading at every change, the Bulldogs succumbed to Carlton by 18 points with the Blues kicking 11 of the last 15 goals.
  • The Bulldogs played keepings-off football, winning +30 uncontested possessions, +25 uncontested marks and narrowly leading disposal efficiency (78% to 75%).
  • The Blues produced a better contested game, with a +14 contested possession advantage and a slight edge in centre clearances (13 to 12).
  • With a superior kick-to-handball ratio (1.72 to 1.58), Carlton advanced the ball more quickly and directly than the Bulldogs. The Blues won the inside-50 count 49 to 44 and took 15 inside-50 marks to seven.
  • Carlton midfielder Brock McLean was awarded three Brownlow votes for his 29 possession, six tackle performance. Heath Scotland also covered plenty of ground with 31 possessions including six inside-50s and four rebound-50s.
  • Bulldog Will Minson monstered an inexperienced Carlton ruck division with 54 hitouts to the Blues’ 19 hitouts total.

Recent Form:

Western Bulldogs
Last week’s final score against the Swans masked another valiant effort from the Bulldogs, with lapses in concentration either side of three-quarter time proving the difference in a high-intensity contest. The Doggies fearlessly attacked the ball, laying a remarkable 96 tackles and winning the contested possession tally for the seventh week straight. As in their Round 18 victory over West Coast, the Bulldogs led Sydney in overall disposals, clearances, tackles and inside-50s. As for their list, Matthew Boyd and Liam Jones seek a return from injury this weekend and Luke Dahlhaus should play after sustaining a broken nose against Sydney. Selection questions aside, the Bulldogs are eager to reap reward for their efforts in the coming weeks by translating statistical advantage into scoreboard victory.

Carlton
In ninth place behind Port Adelaide and two games out of the top-eight, finals seem a tough prospect for the Blues. Their season thus far has been punctuated by winning and losing in streaks. Last week’s defeat at the hands of Fremantle at Etihad broke a chain of three straight wins, which in turn followed four straight losses. While the Blues incurred the loss to the Dockers, their recent performances have been spirited. Averaging seven more contested possessions than their opponents per game in their past four matches, Carlton sits fourth in the AFL for contested possession differential this season. Andrew Carrazo will miss this weekend’s match with a calf strain sustained in the bruising encounter with Fremantle. The availability of key tall Jarrad Waite, who must overcome a knee complaint in order to play this weekend, is also uncertain. In any case, Carlton must defeat the Bulldogs to retain their already slim finals hopes.

Key match ups and game breakers:

  • Much like previous opponent Sydney, Carlton boasts an imposing onball brigade that will challenge the developing Bulldogs midfield in the packs and on the spread from contests. The Blues are ranked fourth in the AFL for average contested possession differential (+8.0), and while the Bulldogs lead them in this area (ranked first at +10.7), Carlton outclasses the Dogs in fluidity of ball movement.
  • Andrew Walker’s move to the backline appears a masterstroke by Carlton coach Mick Malthouse. Walker has enjoyed a stellar season running the ball out of defence, ranking second in the AFL for rebound-50s, fifth for kicks and sixth for running bounces. The Bulldogs must curb his influence in order to stifle Carlton’s ball movement. Young Bulldog Mitch Wallis restricted Sydney’s Josh Kennedy to 18 touches last week while racking up 29 of his own and could be given the Walker assignment.
  • Carlton’s small forwards are among the most dangerous in the competition. Jeff Garlett has scored 39 goals this year (ranked first at Carlton and eleventh in the AFL) and laid an impressive 64 tackles (second at Carlton), generating 13 free kicks. Support acts include Chris Yarran (21 goals and 57 tackles) and Dennis Armfield (14 and 41). Containing these players will be a task made more difficult by likely rotations through the midfield. The role of Bulldogs medium defenders Dale Morris, Michael Talia and Tom Young within defensive-50 will prove critical; all are tight-checking backmen and rank within the Bulldogs’ top five players for one-percenters (including spoils and smothers).